Ronald Hudson - Fotolia
The economic systems in use today, which were designed hundreds of years ago, aren't working and need to change. That's because the economic activities people want to do today are generally faster than the systems that support those activities. So said Gartner vice president and research fellow David Furlonger, who presented on the topic of IoT monetization and the "programmable economy" at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in October in Orlando, Fla.
As an example of the problem, Furlonger pointed to a recent bill he paid online, inadvertently using money from the wrong bank account. He tried to correct his error during the in-progress transaction, but the system didn't allow him to make the change. When he called the bank, he learned it would take two days to make an interbank transfer -- despite the fact that shifting money from one account to another typically can be done instantaneously. "That to me is a recognition that the system is somehow broken. The technologies that we're using are somehow broken," he said. "We're expecting instant gratification and that everything is available all the time. And that's not happening in the current economic environment."
The economic model of the future
Furlonger painted a picture of a very different economic model in the not-too-distant future, suggesting that within 10 years, we'll be paying for things using units of value from loyalty programs, such as airline miles, and reputation rewards on platforms such as Facebook. In the coming programmable economy, monetized things and actions -- enabled by technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT) -- will grease the wheels of our financial systems.
David Furlongervice president and research fellow, Gartner
He laid out the developments that will enable this new model. First, he said, by 2020, a "pure algorithmic entity" -- one that conducts business based on autonomous decisions -- will be among the top 500 fastest-growing companies in the world. By 2022, 5% of economic transactions will be initiated by autonomous software agents. "That means that agents, sensors, algorithms will have the ability to make the same kinds of, as well as different, decisions that humans currently make today," he said.
Indeed, he said that by 2022 the majority of global financial assets will be "shadow assets": financial assets that aren't represented by monetary currency. And by 2025, the majority of shadow assets will be "programmable."
"Shadow financial assets today make up $75 trillion. It's about 25% of the overall financial assets of the existing economy," Furlonger said. "We know from various financial services bodies … that the percentage share of traditional bank assets is going down dramatically and the percent share of shadow assets in the big tech type space is growing dramatically. That crossover could happen sooner than is predicted."
Today's tech shortcomings trigger need for programmable economy
Furlonger drilled down into the problem with today's technology as an enabler for the programmable economy. "How many of you are still using systems that were designed in the 1960s or 1970s or 1980s, where the speed of movement of information, the ability to access information, is very different than it is today? … You're trying to create apps and you're trying to link APIs with systems that clearly weren't designed for that. You're trying to move across ecosystems between one country and another or between one supply chain and another supply chain. Your systems just won't accommodate that kind of flexibility."
Another problem is that business models in use today were designed in the early 1900s and are flawed: static, one-directional and not very flexible, he said. Today's "fail fast" business mentality is challenging existing business models.
Over the next few years, Furlonger predicted, there will be a transition to an economic model that will better support organizations' move to digital business. IoT will play a key role in this transition. "The Things will start to act as proxies for us. You see that with things like virtual personal assistants, virtual customer assistants, different algorithms for robots … making decisions on our behalf in the transactional supply chain. That's just the beginning," he said.
Furlonger said robotic services -- including those attached to IoT -- will become increasingly autonomous. "There's no reason -- because everything is connected to the Internet -- why they can't access your bank account, why they can't pay tax, why they can't transfer money. It's just another Internet-based connection, and then they become part and parcel of this new economic environment," he said.
In part two of this report, we look at the technological environment that will be required to enable the new programmable economy, as well as recommendations for CIOs to prepare for it.
Also from Gartner Symposium/ITxpo: Pixar's Ed Catmull on getting to "fail fast"
Gartner Symposium panel weighs in on the path to CIO
Investigative reporter Brian Krebs on the virtues of curiosity